Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 100136.436676 105528.043239 110914.478990 116695.979946 122722.227130 128814.779328 135436.289734
2025-11-09 91032.452617 99256.160613 107696.645366 116996.419040 126944.459932 137256.004311 148741.341742
2025-11-16 85332.710008 95551.106485 106261.145375 118301.602603 131438.257255 145313.557712 161054.467791
2025-11-23 80069.232238 91701.410094 104110.760387 118298.592524 134033.802664 150913.166274 170351.270859
2025-11-30 76818.918714 89707.100264 103666.954957 119858.657919 138067.458904 157856.762845 180933.771149
2025-12-07 73759.652958 87668.797103 102943.055443 120889.799464 141324.364080 163791.582097 190283.739286
2025-12-14 70465.194394 85150.643531 101485.878846 120911.158017 143284.408215 168146.761236 197762.357817
2025-12-21 67716.848507 83099.523351 100415.456316 121236.517907 145471.383651 172666.173881 205360.959578
2025-12-28 66059.947014 82214.078905 100596.799432 122923.771343 149159.616762 178858.568926 214860.489797
2026-01-04 64307.327701 81118.282183 100447.819603 124150.237450 152254.251442 184331.817879 223520.757407
2026-01-11 62456.793282 79816.339763 99977.162845 124926.808583 154765.439772 189091.876827 231339.015303
2026-01-18 60502.395397 78305.407862 99183.036394 125250.192827 156685.113863 193122.248156 238285.262560
2026-01-25 58739.405406 76981.547136 98579.785381 125782.650273 158854.347018 197471.957789 245667.353924
2026-02-01 56836.842813 75419.052190 97629.195602 125844.029993 160420.397840 201086.965629 252180.628544
2026-02-08 55698.013306 74761.254946 97746.142873 127176.492193 163506.470559 206517.427159 260887.037348
2026-02-15 53966.980314 73296.014507 96810.599408 127162.499208 164908.938210 209895.641627 267114.233148
2026-02-22 53140.722027 72946.352148 97235.756588 128815.416140 168350.517931 215750.317419 276370.004664
2026-03-01 52101.449786 72283.892516 97234.983690 129908.801599 171083.595918 220740.236508 284590.451446
2026-03-08 50624.992341 71007.629466 96414.819432 129931.364802 172452.450668 224040.200611 290738.413204
2026-03-15 49368.297247 69978.597205 95874.121913 130276.467378 174202.112509 227798.485623 297456.134086
2026-03-22 48812.198747 69850.659451 96473.376695 132066.040731 177772.867864 233826.791800 307017.514113
2026-03-29 48073.729384 69454.231983 96704.225019 133366.722663 180717.703967 239082.734936 315643.636066
2026-04-05 47167.667729 68804.778394 96581.300926 134190.215998 183042.657432 243563.574331 323318.399480